Big Guns Will Look to Justify Odds at Carnoustie

It didn’t get the same level of criticism as the 2004 event at Shinnecock Hills, but the 2018 US Open was by all objective measure pretty crazy.

There seems to be a consensus now that someone from the USGA will shuffle out for an apology after these ‘extreme’ tournaments, mumble something about ‘learning a lesson’, not learn that lesson and repeat the mistakes ad Infinitum.

Brooks Koepka would not have cared about being the least worst player out there, of course. That’s probably a bit harsh on Brooks and a handful of others, though. After all, there were some brilliant performances out there (at times), not least Tommy Fleetwood’s masterclass on Sunday evening.

Mickleson embodied players’ frustrations

In the end, the golfers will get over the over par scores, with normal order likely to be resumed at this weekends Travellers Championship. Even Phil Mickleson might have a smile on his face again by the end of weekend. Or, perhaps not.

If anyone deserves sympathy after the ‘Shinnecock Massacre’, it’s golf loyal army of punters who are probably still scratching their heads and asking what happened to their hard-earned money. At least Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth didn’t drag it out for them, putting bettors out of their misery early.

Johnson had up and down weekend

Then there was Dustin Johnson, who raced into the a 4-shot lead after a fine second round. The South Carolinian was trading at odds-on in the betting markets on Saturday morning, but he obviously felt a bit left out and decided to post a 77 so he could join the rest of his colleagues.

Rickie Fowler, another who would have been tempting live-betting fans on the Friday night, had a ‘hold my beer’ moment on Saturday, posting an almost impressive 84.By the end of the third round, most punters would have given and rather placed a straight up bet on roulette instead. At least they would have a 35 to 1 payout. 

Spieth, McIlroy and Johnson top odds for the Open

The big guns are right back at the top of the odds for The Open at Carnoustie next month, with 10/1 (Mr Green) being offered for Spieth, McIlroy and Johnson. There is a gap to the likes of Fowler, ‘Justins’ Rose and Thomas, Fleetwood and Koepka at 16/1.

Hard to make a case for leading players

It is the front trio who should be under most scrutiny to punters, yes Spieth is the defending Open champion, but it’s a couple of years since Dustin Johnson won his only Major. McIlroy has not been placed inside the top 3 at a Major since winning the 2014 PGA Championship. He has missed the cut in four out of the last nine.

It boils down to this: Does the trio merit being backed so strongly by bookmakers? One could certainly make an argument for Spieth’s inclusion as favourite, being the ‘champ’ after all. But the value might lie with any number of players outside that group. Still, with the way things are going for golf punters this year, expect a ‘podium’ finish from McIlroy, Johnson and Spieth when everyone is backing the field.

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Issue 3 of GolfPunk digital magazine out now. Read here.